Episode 3: Understanding the Market and Navigating What's Next

Welcome to Episode 3 of the Silicon Valley & SF Real Estate podcast! In this episode, Eddie Oberoi sits down with Kaajal Shahani, a Fremont native who has been selling Bay Area homes with Intero for 23 years. Prices in places like Pleasanton and Fremont have come down from the peak, while luxury homes are still drawing multiple offers. So what should buyers and sellers do right now? Let's dive in.

Meet Kaajal Shahani

Kaajal has been a realtor for 23 years, all of them with Intero. Born and raised in Fremont, she now sells homes she used to visit as a kid, and she doesn't need GPS to find her way around town. Real estate is her family business, and she's quick to add that she chose it.

About 16 years ago, she moved to Pleasanton for its downtown, youth sports and larger lots. As Eddie points out, Pleasanton is one of the few Bay Area towns where schools, activities and restaurants are all close by, so families rarely need to leave town.

The Lessons of Two Decades

Ask Kaajal what she has learned, and she starts with this: no two days are alike. Realtors are tied to interest rates, the economy, the market and even who's in the White House.

Her second lesson: never take anything personally. When a client suddenly goes quiet, there's usually a reason. In one case, the "ghosting" client had just found out they were having a baby. You never know what people are going through until you really get to know them.

It's Not as Glamorous as It Looks

From the outside, real estate can look like open houses, music and drinks. Most days, it's sweats, gloves and moving furniture. When a listing goes live looking beautiful, there's often a lot of chaos behind it: a vendor who didn't show up, a room that wasn't cleaned an hour before photos, and agents picking up the slack.

One of Kaajal's favorite sales shows why it's worth it. An elderly seller had lived in her home for about 52 years and was moving into a retirement community in Las Vegas. Most of her wealth was in the house, so she couldn't afford movers. Eddie and Kaajal showed up and packed boxes with her, and then arranged the move. On closing day, her neighbors threw her a surprise parade. Eddie calls sellers like her "equity rich and cash poor": they may have $2 million in equity but little cash to prepare a home for sale.

What's Happening in Pleasanton and Fremont

Pleasanton has higher inventory right now, and many good homes are sitting at prices well below the last few years. Kaajal looks back at homes she sold around the 2022 peak. As an example, a home that sold for $1.7 million then could be bought for about $1.5 million today.

The homes that still sell fast, often in under two weeks and sometimes with multiple offers, share a few things:

• They're priced close to pre-COVID or mid-2020 levels.
• They're in good condition and show well.
• In Pleasanton especially, they have a flat, finished backyard, ideally with a pool.

Fremont looks similar. Single-family homes in the $1 million to $2 million range are taking longer to sell. Luxury is a different story. Kaajal recently lost out on a Fremont home, on the street she grew up on, that was listed at about $3.75 million and sold for about $4.6 million with multiple offers. Even as someone who sees homes all day, she was impressed by how well it showed.

Across the Bay, San Francisco is surging, driven by new wealth from recent tech IPOs. One home there reportedly sold for $10 million over list price.

The Biggest Mistake Buyers Are Making

Missing opportunities. Many buyers get stuck on the interest rate and lose sight of the full picture:

• The rate is higher, but the purchase price is lower, sometimes by $200,000.
• A lower price can also mean lower property taxes.
• You can refinance your rate later. You can't change your purchase price.

Kaajal has seen several cycles. In 2005, nearly everyone was buying. From 2010 to 2012, she handled many short sales and sold single-family homes in Fremont for $250,000 to $350,000 and condos for $50,000 to $100,000. Looking back, she wishes she had bought property every day back then.

Prices are much higher now, but one thing is similar: buyers can negotiate with sellers who need to sell, rather than chase homes where sellers dictate the price. As Eddie puts it, a home bought for $1 million in 2005 that dropped to $600,000 may be worth $2.5 million today. If you plan to flip in a year or two, that's a risk. If you'll live there five to seven years, it's an easy decision.

Sellers: "Need to Sell" vs. "Make Me Move"

Kaajal splits sellers into two groups, borrowing from Zillow's old "Make Me Move" idea:

• "Make me move" sellers want 2022 or 2023 prices and only plan to sell if they're wowed. If you don't need to sell, she suggests pausing. You're unlikely to get that number in this market unless you own something like a standout luxury home in San Francisco.
• "Need to sell" sellers are in a good spot. The buyers are there. It may take a little longer, but a well-prepared, aggressively priced home will draw traffic and sell.

If you're upgrading or downsizing, it's often a wash: the home you sell for less is offset by the home you buy for less. Kaajal also sees many clients in 2026 keep their first home, often an easy-to-rent three-bedroom, two-bath, while they upgrade. They hold it for two or three years to see whether being a landlord suits them. Ask your CPA how that would work for you.

Saving a Deal That Almost Fell Apart

Condo and townhouse lending is tough right now, partly because of HOA issues and California's SB 326 balcony inspection requirements. Kaajal recently had a condo buyer whose lender backed out late in the process.

Many transactions die at that point. Instead, her team helped the buyer find a lender that could do the loan, and the seller agreed to a longer contingency period. The alternative was going back on the market and risking the same problem with a new buyer. The deal closed the day before they recorded this episode.

What Clients Never See

For a full-time realtor, it's not a nine-to-five job. Kaajal says, "We breathe work. We live work." Agents carry their clients' stress with them: a buyer whose lease is ending, a deal stuck in lending, a seller who has to sell but isn't getting a workable offer. The job is often moving puzzle pieces until everything fits.

Eddie adds some perspective: there are around 50,000 realtors in the Bay Area, but nowhere near 50,000 home sales. Active, full-time agents work like active attorneys, from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to sleep.

The Strangest Story of the Year

This year, Kaajal had a listing where things kept seeming slightly off: a pillow on the floor, staging moved around. She blamed careless open house visitors. Then a cleaner found clothes in the bathroom, and a neighbor reported seeing someone in the driveway. Eventually, Kaajal opened the door and found a man on the couch. Someone had been living in the house while she was showing it.

The police never came, but they got him out, and the seller hired security to watch the property 24/7 until it sold. Eddie shared his own story of neighbors tossing garbage onto one of his listings. In real estate, you never know who you'll run into.

First Steps for Buyers

1. Get pre-approved first. Know your monthly payment, your maximum and your minimum before you start shopping. A house isn't like clothes. You can't return it.
2. Plan for your worst case. Ask your lender about all your options: a 30-year fixed, 5- or 7-year ARMs and interest-only loans. If you're conservative, or one income in a two-income household feels uncertain, base your pre-approval on the 30-year fixed. As Eddie says, no home is worth losing sleep over.
3. Narrow down where you want to live. Each city has its own price point, so work with your agent to see what your budget buys in each city on your short list. Then build your must-have list.
4. Stay where your heart is. Eddie and Kaajal have seen many buyers move far away for a bigger house, especially during the 2020 remote-work boom, only to feel homesick or stuck in traffic once offices reopened. Some who bought in places like Mountain House or San Ramon have seen values drop.

The good news is that buyers can take their time now. For years, buyers might see one or two homes and have to decide on the spot. Today, you can explore and visit a home a second, third or fourth time. That hasn't happened much since around 2012.

Advice for Sellers

If you truly need to sell, whether you're upgrading, downsizing or moving out of state, Kaajal's advice comes down to two things:

• Price it right. Your sale price is a moving target. If you think your home is worth $2 million and your neighbor sells for $1.7 or $1.8 million, that's the new benchmark. Maybe they were priced realistically.
• Make sure it shows well. A good agent will give you an honest opinion about what will sell your home, including decor and paint.

Do both, and you're ahead before the home even hits the market. Off-market sales still happen fairly often, too. As Eddie likes to say, in a seller's market the most motivated buyer wins. In a buyer's market, the most motivated seller wins.

Advice for New Agents

Eddie has been in the industry since 1999. When he joined Intero around 2012, after the financial crisis, he reached out to Kaajal to ask what was working for her, and he still does. His point: you never arrive, no matter how much business you've done.

Kaajal's advice for new agents is what she'd tell her younger self:

• Stay consistent. Pick your approach, like farming a neighborhood you know well, and stick with it even when results don't come right away. It's like working out. You don't get in shape overnight.
• Don't take things personally. When someone doesn't call back, it's rarely about you. People are dealing with things you'll never see.
• Don't expect anything back. Keep prospecting, keep reaching out and lead with kindness. That's when the business comes.

A Few of Kaajal's Favorites

• Coffee spot: Inklings in Downtown Pleasanton. She also likes Peet's. A longtime daily Starbucks regular, she found both after going dairy-free about nine years ago.
• Book: Think Like a Monk by Jay Shetty. "You could just read a page and be fine."

Predictions for 2027 and Beyond

Kaajal expects 2027 to look a lot like 2026: ongoing uncertainty around rates and jobs, with occasional bursts of activity, like the month in 2026 when homes suddenly started selling. She expects the luxury market to stay strong, especially with AI-driven buyers. Her message: if you need to sell, go for it. If you're buying, it's a great time to shop.

She's also seeing strong activity from investors buying short-term rentals for the tax advantages, with some trying to close before year-end. The good ones are selling quickly. Talk to your CPA about whether that strategy fits you.

Eddie agrees that issues like H-1B visas, layoffs and market fear won't change overnight. But he adds a caution: the Bay Area can turn fast. San Francisco struggled for years and then took off almost overnight. When good news hits, a $2 million home can become a $2.2 million home with multiple offers.

His tip for buyers who can't afford a single-family home: don't overlook condos and townhomes in strong locations like Sunnyvale, Santa Clara and Palo Alto. Many younger buyers want a more minimal lifestyle, and these could rise in value over the next 10 years. Just don't expect much in a year or two. Real estate is a long-term investment.